Canada's economy stalls again in August as rail freight jumps 3.6% and wholesale slides
Real GDP was flat for a second straight month. Wheat, intermodal and U.S. traffic lifted rail, while auto wholesale and vehicle manufacturing fell hard.
Canada's economy went nowhere in August, but the freight mix moved a lot underneath.
Real gross domestic product was essentially unchanged in August, Statistics Canada reported on Oct. 30. It was the second month in a row with no real change. Nine of 20 industrial sectors grew.
Rail had its best month since March 2025
Rail transportation grew 3.6% in August, the largest monthly gain since March 2025. StatCan pointed to three drivers:
- Wheat moving by rail, after record wheat production for the crop year. This was the biggest contributor.
- Intermodal shipments.
- Freight traffic arriving from the United States.
Air transportation rose 1.3%, its fourth straight monthly gain.
The goods trucks haul were mixed
- Wholesale trade fell 1.4%, the biggest drag on the economy. Motor vehicle and parts wholesalers dropped 4.4%, their first decline in seven months, alongside lower imports of cars and light trucks.
- Building material and supplies wholesalers rose 0.5%, a third straight gain, led by lumber, millwork and hardware.
- Retail trade rose 1.2%, more than offsetting July's drop. Motor vehicle and parts dealers were up 1.8% and food and beverage retailers 1.3%. Gasoline stations and fuel vendors fell 0.6%.
- Manufacturing rose 0.3%, up for the fifth time in seven months. Machinery was up 3.8% and petroleum refineries 4.2%.
- Transportation equipment manufacturing fell 3.1%. Motor vehicles and parts manufacturing fell 5.8% as a long summer shutdown at a major auto assembly plant cut output.
Oil and gas extraction fell 1.2%, its third monthly decline, with oil sands down 2.1% during maintenance in northern Alberta. Mining outside oil and gas rose 4.9%, and potash mining jumped 12.0%.
September looks slightly weaker
StatCan's advance estimate shows real GDP down 0.1% in September, with manufacturing and mining lower. Taken together, the data suggest the economy grew 0.3% in the third quarter.
Official September and third-quarter numbers come out on Nov. 30.
What it means for carriers
Rail's strong August came from bulk grain and intermodal, not from the auto freight many Ontario and Quebec fleets depend on. Vehicle wholesale and auto plant output both fell sharply in the same month. Carriers running auto parts lanes should watch the Nov. 30 release to see whether September recovered.